Second transmission wave

 Amidst relaxation of lockdown through Unlock 4:0, the coronavirus continues to show spike each day. Lockdown is easing and people are returning to work and shops are lifting their shutters. However, there is yet no vaccine and still a long way from achieving herd immunity. This has put the new-found freedom tainted with fear that a second wave of transmission is in the offing. Hence, after lockdown is relaxed, there is possibility that the virus will return with a bang. This is known as the ‘second wave’. Such a likely scenario was predicted recently based on data of daily COVID-19 cases. The reports said that not only at the all-India level, but 10 of the 20 bigger states in India are showing signs of a second surge. Medical experts around the world have been predicting a second wave of coronavirus infection. Though there was no official study and research that suggest the prevalence of the second wave in India, several countries in Asia are already experiencing the second wave of Coronavirus. Australia is the latest country that is battling the second wave. Medical authorities have pointed out a similarity with the Spanish Flu in 1918-19 that killed between two to five crore people. The virus first appeared in the spring of 1918 but then mutated when it resurged in a more deadlier second wave. Epidemiologists say there is no formal definition of a second wave but they know it when they see it. Adding to the worry, recently there were reports of three persons from Belgium,Netherlands and Hongkong, who had recovered from COVID-19 being re-infected by the same virus. According to Mark Dybul, a professor of global health at Georgetown University Medical Center and former head of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, if testing is slow then there is a much larger base number of infections and that’s much more difficult to control. He said even if countries put really severe restrictions in place, the spread of the virus is happening at a level that’s very difficult to contain. One aspect of quashing the exponential growth of COVID is to flatten the ‘curve’ through lockdowns, intensive tracking and large-scale testing. However in the absence of a vaccine, there is no way of quashing the virus completely. The government’s Indian Council of Medical Research(ICMR) has another take about the issue of ‘second wave’. This was argued by ICMR chief Dr Balram Bhargava who said has said that it is difficult to predict whether or not India will see a second wave of COVID-19 infections. However, another epidemiologist Dr Giridhar Babu and member of the national task force of coronavirus in India said it will take quite sometime for the second wave since India is currently having a prolonged plateau, rather than dipping to the bottom to re-emerge as a second wave. India may also see a jump in the novel coronavirus cases in December 2020 when the winter remains at its peak in the country, according to AIIMS Director, Dr Randeep Guleria. He said that India is also vulnerable to the second wave of coronavirus. Many statements in the past indicated that the number of cases could peak by July 2020. Then, several experts said the peak could come by mid-September. However, a lot depends on government’s efforts and public behaviour.