Nature’s fury

When a 7.8 magnitude earthquake struck southeastern Turkey and northwestern Syria early morning, local time February 7,2023, its tremor could be felt as far afield as Lebanon, Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and the Palestinian territories. A second quake, which recorded a magnitude of 7.5, struck just 9 hours later. Several thousand buildings across the affected zones were reduced to rubble as more than 11,000 people are officially declared dead though the number continues to rise as search and rescue operations find more bodies underneath piles of rubble. Both Turkey and Syria are still reeling from the devastating quake, which is among the worst in ten years. The World Health Organization(WHO) has warned that the combined count could reach 20,000, and that 23 million people could be affected by the disaster. According to historical records Turkey has been hit by at least 80 major earthquakes since as early as 17 BC at Philadelphia now Alasehir and down the ages with the highest death toll being 2,60,000 on December 13,115 AD at Antioch and another in the same area on May 19, 526v AD killing 2,50,000 people. However, the highest ever toll was on December 26,2004 when an earthquake of magnitude of 9.1 and 9.3 on the Richter scale hit Indonesia, Sumatra and the Indian ocean causing the deaths of 2,27,898 people. Earthquakes are not uncommon in Turkey. Most of the country is situated on the Anatolian Plate, which borders two major fault lines: the North Anatolian fault, which stretches across the country from west to east, and the East Anatolian fault, which is in eastern Turkey. After a devastating earthquake hit the country in 1999 and killed some 17,000 people, the government at the time promised to reform the country’s earthquake infrastructure—pledging to create new construction standards and strengthen existing buildings. The Turkey-Syrian earthquake should ring alarm bells to those in India. There are four seismic zones-2,3,4 and 5 in India in ascending order of intensity and destructive zone. The Himalayan ranges, which also includes parts of the north east that form the belt are potential regions for major earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 16 major earthquakes in any given year. That includes 15 earthquakes in the magnitude 7 range and one earthquake magnitude 8.0 or greater. In the past 40-50 years, records show that there has been more than expected long-term average number of major earthquakes by about a dozen times. The year with the largest total was 2010, with 23 major earthquakes (greater than or equal to magnitude 7.0). In other years the total was well below the annual long-term average of 16 major earthquakes. 1989 only had 6 major earthquakes and 1988 only had 7. Since the North Eastern India falls under 5 – 6, the shifting of the Himalayan plates is expected to occur .History of past earthquakes in the region were recorded in Assam which experienced, the earthquakes of 1897 and 1950 , reputed to be among the ten biggest earthquakes in history. The other major earthquake occurred in Shillong in 1897 causing widespread destruction. As per the advice of seismologists, buildings in the north east should be either single or at the most, double storeyed. Besides that, the construction of buildings should also conform to the safety requirements to minimize damages or loss of life.