Risky predictions

Exit polls released on Thursday, November 30 after the conclusion of polling in Telangana that also signalled the last assembly election in 2023 before the Lok Sabha election in 2024, was a mixed bag. As per the exit poll predictions, Congress is expected to prevail in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and wrest Telangana from BRS , while BJP is expected to retain Madhya Pradesh. Most exit polls predicted an edge to the Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana. While in Mizoram, Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) was ahead of the ruling Mizo National Front (MNF). It’s a thumping win for the ruling BJP in Madhya Pradesh, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, with the party predicted to win 140-162 seats in the 230-member Assembly. The Congress is far behind, with a projected 68-90 seats. In Rajasthan too, it appears to be neck-and-neck with a slight edge for the Congress, according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. Out of 199 seats where polling was held, the Congress is predicted to win anywhere between 86-106 seats while the BJP may get 80 to 100. In Telangana, Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao’s Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) may be staring at trouble as four exit polls suggest that the Congress is ahead. Congress, which had been humbled by BRS in 2018, winning just 15 out of 119 seats, is exacting revenge as it is set to poll 42 per cent vote share and 68 seats, while the ruling BRS is expected to get 39 seats and a 36 per cent vote share. In Mizoram, the Opposition Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) – an alliance of six parties – led by Laduhoma is emerging as the unexpected hero, decimating Chief Minister Zoramthanga’s Mizo National Front (MNF) according to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll. The Mizo National Front (MNF) currently ruling the state, is predicted to win just 3 to 7 seats while ZPM is likely to win around 22 or more seats. What interests all political parties is on how accurate the exit poll predictions will be and what these would mean in 2024 when the Lok Sabha elections are fought by April-May. However, it may be noted that in many elections over the recent years, exit polls have proven erratic, throwing up conflicting results. In such a situation, how do you read these exit polls? What exit polls are all about is aggregation and averaging the samples Elections to the five states took place between November 7-November 30 and the counting of votes would take place on December 3. Today, some judge the accuracy of an exit poll by looking at the survey agency that conducted it, or the television channel that commissioned it. Some others look at the sample size -a common notion is that the bigger the sample size, the more reliable the poll. However, past experiences show that poll outcomes are not the end of the supposedly democratic process, as elected representatives, more often than not, go against the verdict of their electorate in pursuit of power and position. These auctioning of the elected throw all those predictions to the dustbin of politics.