Impact of lockdown

 On Tuesday, prime minister Narendra Modi, in a televised address, announced the 21-day lockdown all over India beginning March 25 which virtually brought all economic activities to a grinding halt. The government has barred people from leaving their homes for the entire period in the expectation that it will phase off the threat from going into Stage 3 or community spread. What is being seen, is that despite lockdown the confirmed cases of Coronavirus has not come down but continues to rise sharply. Though this may not be sufficient to suggest that the lockdown is a failure; yet it could only indicate that Stage 2 is being crossed into Stage 3. Unless more people, especially in areas where positive Covid cases have been recorded, are made to undergo blood tests, the figure may not be reflective of the ground reality. The other concern is of lakhs of people across the nation, especially the poor daily wage earners who cannot return home due to suspensions of train and bus services throughout the country. These people are herded together in various place as they have nowhere to go and works against social distancing. This is the severe challenge before the government both in terms of transportation as well as screening. The stranded people also need proper places to stay including food. This is an issue which the government ought to consider. The government needs to act with comprehensive plan so that the lacunae of the logic behind lockdown is addressed to meet the objective. Also the present ‘emergency-like situation’ arising out of the coronavirus scare in India is somehow turning out to be another TV op and photo op. Those at the forefront, barring medical fraternity such as volunteers or policemen need adequate orientation and proper protective gear. Coronavirus is not like fume nor liquid that raincoats or ordinary protective gear can be used. In order to provide full protection for medial and frontline staff, all of them need to be provided with hazmat suits. There are suspicions that Coronavirus has been under reported in China and worse, in North Korea. The virus broke out during September last year in China but was kept under lid. The World Health Organisation Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus the Ethiopian politician has been rightly blamed for his over eagerness to protect China from being targeted. He also refused to declare global pandemic and after a few months, when WHO finally declared it as pandemic, thousands have died in several countries since correct response was not taken. Many countries still have to undertake focussed screening and testing and that is why some countries like Bangladesh, Nepal(3) and Myanmar etc have been below four. The lockdown in India is not the ultimate response otherwise it will be like placing an entire state under curfew for days just to catch a crook. What is needed is proactive measures to identify and quarantine travellers besides those showing symptoms of the virus. A prolonged lockdown against coronavirus is going to have a huge negative impact on the economy as the GDP is likely to fall further to 3.2 percent from the 5 percent projected. Jobs are falling and lakhs are now without earning. This will worsen in the days to come and could even trigger backlash. In the ultimate analysis, it remains to be seen which of the two- coronavirus or the economy- will be destroyed.