TN politics

 Tamil Nadu goes to the polls sometime during April-May 2021 to elect a 234-member legislative assembly and decide which of the two main contestants- the ruling All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) or the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)- will rule the state. The 2021 electoral battle in Tamil Nadu is going to be a contest between the two major Dravidian parties AIADMK and DMK with the two national players BJP and Congress, playing minor roles from the margins. The BJP is a partner of the ruling All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam while the Congress is an ally of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. DMK leader M.K.Stalin (son of late M.Karunanidhi) is eying to become the chief minister for the first time if his party wins. On the other hand, AIADMK chief minister E.Paliniswami(EPS) is seeking to retain power and is hoping to reap benefits of central assistance through alliance with the BJP. However, EPS is not the only leader in the AIADMK as his rival and current deputy chief minister O.Panneerselvam is also hoping he would regain the chair which he occupied three times- 2001-02 , 2014-15 and 2016-17. Both EPS and OPS are rival claimants but out of political necessity, joined hands against V.K. Sasikala( a close aide of late J. Jayalalithaa), to prevent her from reclaiming the party after coming out of jail. Sasikala was elected as leader of the legislature party and was set to become the chief minister of Tamil Nadu. However, the Supreme Court played spoilsport by upholding her conviction by a lower court in the disproportionate assets case. She was barred from contesting elections for ten years after her conviction in 2017 and will have to wait till 2027 and by that time she would be 72. Sasikala was sent to four year jail till January 2021. While she was in jail, the AIADMK headed by OPS and EPS expelled her from the party. Now, out of jail, Sasikala is expected to disrupt the state politics by challenging the two key leaders – EPS and OPS- and her former political party AIADMK. The BJP is playing the role of backseat driver in the internal crisis in AIADMK(between EPS and OPS) and between the duo and Sasikala and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam(AMMK) floated by her nephew, Dhinakaran. While BJP hopes to form an alliance with AMMK and AIADMK or return of Sasikala and Dhinakaran into their former party; both EPS and OPS are totally opposed to the return of Sasikala or Dhinakaran to AIADMK. The BJP is hoping to change the expected outcome by forging alliance with AIADMK and opening avenues for talks with Stalin’s estranged brother M.K.Alagiri. Perhaps the big disappointment for BJP came when Tamil superstar Rajnikanth, who was expected to float his party and tilt towards BJP, decided not to join politics. Unlike the Congress which has no big plans except to maintain its existence in Tamil Nadu, the BJP can be expected to engineer developments in the same style as it has been doing in other states. The AIADMK won the 2016 assembly polls by reversing the alternative outcome but the DMK won the 2019 Lok Sabha polls when the party’s alliance bagged 31 of the total 39 seats. Going by the trend, presently DMK is favoured to return to power but in politics, four months is a very long time.