Covid still around

 If India’s flattening curve of fresh COVID-19 infections elicit hope then has it attained herd immunity?. It is a stage where two-thirds of the general population should have antibodies. Medically antibodies is a neutralising antibody which needs to be in the patient’s system for longer than two or three months, or else, it is conferring no protection to the patient. The other way by which antibodies are developed is through vaccination. On September 16, 2020, while India was seeing its COVID-19 peak, new cases were above 97,000, and deaths averaged between 1,100 and 1,200 a day the same week. Now, in the first week of February 2021, new cases are at an average 11,500 and deaths fewer than 100 a day. A recent report of the ‘ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) Third National Sero Survey’ to check the prevalence of the virus in the population found 21.4 percent of the Indian population has so far has been exposed to the virus and others have not and therefore run a risk of getting infected and therefore all need to take precautions. Earlier to this, the sero prevalance studies of the ICMR in August-September 2020 showed that there are 26-32 actual cases for every reported case in the country. If this is set to the Cynic-o-Meter to 32x, then there should be around 320 million or 32 crore cases, corresponding to 25 per cent of the population of the country. Another report, also based on survey by a team of scientist has speculated that if the official number of cases across India is just over 10 million or one crore, the actual number is likely to be 200 million or 20 crore , or around 15 per cent of the Indian population. The premise is based on the sero survey which indicates that one in every five Indian is exposed to the virus (though much larger in some of the big cities). Dr Manoj Murhekar, a highly regarded medical expert and the director at the ICMR’s National Institute of Epidemiology in Chennai cautions that Indians cannot afford to be complacent and cannot go back to pre-pandemic routine because what can happen is that since a large population is still not exposed to the virus, there could be a risk of inviting another wave. Dr. Murhekar said getting a vaccine is really important as it is the only protection available other than wearing masks and maintaining physical distancing. However, he said the strain that is circulating in the body of those who have antibodies may not be the strain that is covered by the vaccine. Even the head of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, while admitting that the drop in confirmed Covid-19 infections around the world was encouraging; however cautioned against relaxing restrictions that have helped curb the spread of the coronavirus. If there are reasons in India to take comfort in the declining new cases of the COVID-19 virus, there are equal reasons, if not more, for people to practice greater caution and to not let the guard down. Experts say, the risk is lower than it was a few months ago, but is still non-zero. The risk of complications and death are the same as they were earlier. So, those who are among those who have not had Covid-19, should exercise the same caution and care.