Voters in Assam will exercise their franchise to elect 126 members to the 15th Assam Assembly beginning with the first phase of the three-phase polls on March 27 where 47 seats will be contested spread over 12 districts. In 2016 out of 47 seats, BJP won 27, AGP bagged 8; Congress won 9, AIUDF two and one by Independent. The first phase of assembly election in Assam for 47 constituencies is crucial for the BJP to retain power in the state and achieve its ‘Mission 100 plus’ target. In the 2016 elections, BJP won 60(up from 5 seats in 2011) , Congress 26(down from 78 in 2011) , AGP 14(up from 10 in 2011),BPF 12, AIUDF 13(down from 18 in 2011). In 2016 BJP got a huge 29.5 % vote share ( up from 11% in 2011) while the Congress got 30.9% vote share (down from 39.9% in 2011). The election will be largely a bipolar contest between the BJP and its alliance- Asom Gana Parishad(AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL) against the Mahajoth(grand alliance) comprising of Congress, All India United Democratic Front(AIUDF), Bodoland People’s Front(BPF), Communist Party of India, CPI (Marxist), the CPI (Marxist-Leninist), Anchalik Gana Morcha(AGM) and Rashtriya Janata Dal(RJD) including two community-based parties- Jimochayan (Deori) People’s Party, or JDPP, and Adivasi National Party (ANP). The BJP ditched its 2016 ally, the BPF and included in its place, the recently formed UPPL in Bodo area. The BJP-led by chief minister Sarabananda Sonowal appears confident of winning 100 seats out of 126 on its own. This confidence stem from the party strategist- finance minister and former Congress leader Himanta Biswa Sarma’s analytical calculation. Himanta pulled off a surprise win in the BTC polls when BJP ditched its ruling alliance partner BPF and ally with its new ally UPPL. BPF won 17 and Congress 1 while BJP won 9 and UPPL 12 to form a coalition with 21 in the 40-member BTC. The BPF has joined the Congress-led alliance for the 2021 assembly polls for the 12 seats under Bodoland Territorial Council. The other regional alliance contesting the election is the Asom Jatya Parishad formed by two student organizations of Assam- All Assam Students Union (AASU) and Asom Jatiyatabadi Yuba Chatra Parishad (AJYCP) and the Raijor Dal, formed by anti-CAA activist Akhil Gogoi.The AJP and RD have vowed to oust the BJP-led ruling coalition. The AJP will contest 68 seats and RD 29 seats. The BJP may not find the going as easy since the Congress-led grand alliance could consolidate anti-BJP votes. In Assam out of 32 district, 11 have Muslim majority(as per 2011 census) and the CAA issue could impact how the community votes. The BJP in Assam is silent over CAA, while Congress has promised to not implement it. Possibly, the anti-CAA sentiment not only among Muslims but also other communities could affect the BJP’s fortunes. BJP also faces an internal tussle between chief minister Sonowal and BJP’s strategist and challenger Himanta Sarma. Though BJP has unmatched resources and manpower, it cannot take victory for granted and has left no stone unturned. However, ultimately it is the people who will decide. Next to Bengal, for the BJP, Assam is also a crucial must win state to achieve its goal of a pan-India reach.
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