Inflated numbers

After the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced election schedule for Nagaland on January 19, the waiting and uncertain period has finally ended. As per the ECI schedule, a total of 12,83,749 electors will go to the polls on February 27,2023 to choose 60 members for the next 14th Nagaland Legislative Assembly (NLA). The poll battle will commence in earnest after February 10, 2023, the last date for withdrawal of candidates. The voter turn out in 2018 was 84% while prior to that, in 2013 it was 91.3%. Considering the fact the elections in Nagaland are among the most expensive, the voter turnout, which are also among the highest, would seem to suggest that both go hand in hand. The suspense over the holding of election had literally ‘frozen’ the activities of all political parties in the vain hope that the government of India will walk the talk with regard to solution to the Naga political issue. While campaigning has not picked up, some political parties notably, the party officials of the opposition Congress are spurring up the momentum although the party has not declared how many seats it is contesting. What has drawn much public attention is the ticket drama taking place in the BJP. Both NDPP and BJP have finalised a seat sharing deal as in 2018 in which NDPP will contest 40 seats and BJP will contest 20 seats. There has been much resentment within some sections of the state BJP unit with the 40:20 deal. Due to this, many ticket aspirants and their supporters have been literally up in arms against the deal finalised in Delhi. Those resenting the deal brokered by NDPP secretary general and the BJP national spokesperson in-charge of Nagaland alleged it was done without the consent of the party unit. However, the national BJP has made it clear that the party will stick to the decision after taking various inputs. Some within the state BJP have based their demand for increase in seat share to 25:35 or preferably 30:30 for the February 27,2023 poll. It was assumed that the party is perched atop and will sweep the polls and win over 20 seats if it contested in 25 and also win 28 if it contested 30 seats. These calculations are based on the ‘wave theory’ and may be as presumptuous as the conclusion that crowds at a rally will translate into actual votes. The presumptions within the BJP are also primarily based on the thinking that people want a change due to anti-incumbency factor linked to NDPP. BJP is an important alliance partner of NDPP from 2018 and earlier a permanent feature of alliance with NPF from 2003 to 2018. BJP therefore cannot be exonerated and allowed to escape from being brought under the scanner if there is an anti-incumbency with NDPP. The calculations of some state BJP leaders and ticket aspirants that the party will be able to win more seats if the share was increased or even forming government if it went solo has not struck the right chord with the national leaders. Had the state BJP and its legislature wing been in working relationship then it would have made some difference with the national leaders. However, the continuing demands for more seats and even threat of en masse resignations if seat sharing is not reviewed, by some state BJP members, has only opened the eyes of the central leaders wider.