Proxy electoral fights

Both ruling coalition partners Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are going to the assembly election with the same seat sharing formula of 40 (NDPP) and 20 (BJP) adopted in 2018. In that year the strike rate of the NDPP was 45 (contested 40 and won 18) while the BJP fared better with a strike rate of 60 (contested 20 and won 12). In 2023 both parties are continuing with the pre-poll alliance and with the same number of seats but much has changed since 2018. There was some conflict within the BJP about reviewing the seat sharing formula since the party organisation in the state had spread across all districts. Some within such as leader of the BJP Legislature Party and deputy chief minister Y.Patton wanted something more such as a 30:30 equal seat sharing or if not slightly less at 25:35. However the BJP’s high command decided to go for the 2018 seat sharing despite howls of protest from a segment of the state unit. Despite all the muted protests the decision made by national party leaders held. The seat sharing formula may have been resolved but it has not gone down well. According to insiders, the BJP and NDPP are fighting a huge anti-incumbency but fortunately for them, there is /are no political challenger(s). Even within the NDPP which had many more aspirants than seats, it was also not practically possible to distribute tickets to 42 sitting NDPP legislators (after merger by 21 NPF legislators). When tickets were distributed 15 sitting NDPP legislators found themselves out of contention and had to seek refuge under other parties. It was reported that due to various factors, many could not be given tickets even if some were winnable. Some of those denied tickets joined NCP, LJP(RV)or JD(U) etc. This was also the case with several BJP ticket aspirants. In fact BJP was flooded with a large number of aspirants and the party could have well fielded even as many as 60 candidates even if most were not winnable. Those NDPP ticket aspirants were dubbed as ‘pro Rio’ candidates while those who contested with tickets of other parties were dubbed as ‘pro-BJP’. It was assumed that when the time came if the NDPP-BJP alliance does not win enough seats to form the next government, then those from pro-Rio and pro-BJP candidates, who win elections would play a major role in deciding which party they would prefer to align with and which would eventually decide who would be the next chief minister. The statements made by those candidates especially from the LJP had only raised the pitch for those who wanted to bring a change in leadership in the state in the event the help of non-alliance parties was needed to form the next government. The ‘proxy-war’ within the alliance became very serious that at one time , it threatened its very fate even before the polls. According to insiders, the Assam chief minister and NEDA convenor and trouble shooter Himanta Biswa Sarma was rushed to Dimapur to meet with the top leaders of the state BJP and chief minister Neiphiu Rio to fire fight the issue. Eventually it was agreed to honour the alliance and ensure its return to power. This was reflected through several statements made by state NDPP and BJP leaders, national BJP functionaries and Himanta himself at subsequent public rallies. However, the die has been cast and what happens after results are declared will prove which way the wind blows.