A saffron ride

After the din and dust of the hectic electioneering in Nagaland and Meghalay have settled, the political map that appear in both states, offer an interesting contrast that belie numerical logic. After results were declared on March 2, both states project the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP)as having the potential to rise to the level as that of other national parties such as Congress and NPP. As per the results on March 2, the BJP received a vote share of 9.33 % to win two seats out of all 60 seats it contested. In Nagaland, the BJP contested 20 seats in a pre-poll alliance with the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) and won 12 with a vote share of 18.81%. While the BJP’s strike rate in Nagaland was an impressive 60, it was just 3.33 in Meghalaya. As per records, the BJP made its foray into electoral politics to Meghalaya in 1998 where it contested 28 seats and won three with a vote share of 5.01%. In Nagaland, the BJP made its maiden entry into state elections in 1987 when it contested two seats and drew a blank with a vote share of 0.19% only. Over the decades, the BJP has been consistent with its commitment to penetrate the two Christian majority states where Hindus have a considerable presence. However, despite that being so, the BJP has not been as successful as in Nagaland, despite Meghalaya having 11.53 % Hindus out of the state’s total population. In Nagaland the percentage of Hindus is almost half at around 8.75% of the state’s entire population. The success of the BJP in Nagaland rather than Meghalaya can be gauged by the fact that the vote share in Meghalaya is around 4.65% throughout six elections from 1998 to 2023. In Nagaland, the BJP’s vote share in seven general elections from 1987 to 2023 is higher at 7.94%. The performance of the BJP in Nagaland reached its peak during the recent election when it obtained a vote share of 18.81 % which is higher than the 15.3% it polled in the 2018 election. The BJP is going to try to make some serious inroad into Mizoram, the only Christian majority state where the doors to the party has not fully opened as in Nagaland. For the BJP, the repeat win of 12 seats in Nagaland consecutively in 2018 and 2023 is a big booster which will enable it to seriously consider going it alone in the next coming assembly election. The BJP has been able to send its party member from Nagaland to the Rajya Sabha. It is certain that BJP will also ensure that its party member will contest and win the 2024 Lok Sabha election as part of BJP’s 400+ goal. The BJP has understood what drives the pulse of the voters in Nagaland and Manipur as its successes in tribal areas amplify this claim. It may not however, find the going so easy in Meghalaya and far more difficult in Mizoram, both Christian majority states. However, it does not mean it will stop trying. Unlike any other party, the BJP has a clear agenda and is committed and determined to achieve the goals while it is unlikely that the opposition parties can ever unite, even in the next decades.