India’s call in Myanmar

A coalition of ethnic armed militias in Myanmar have launched what could be the best possible chance to overthrow the military government that has controlled the country since a 2021 coup ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD). Ethnic armed outfits in Myanmar- the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army(MNDAA), the Ta’ang National Liberation Army(TNLA) and the Arakan Army(AA)- forged a united front called the Three Brotherhood Alliance against the military junta in June 2019. On October 27, the Three Brotherhood Alliance, launched a well-coordinated offensive in the eastern Shan state, which was named as “Operation 1027”. That’s a new dimension in the ongoing fight against military leadership. Other outfits fighting the junta include People’s Defense Force is an umbrella term for three types of armed groups that have emerged since the coup: PDFs, Local Defense Forces (LDFs) and People’s Defense Teams (PaKhaPha/PDTs). The PDFs are generally larger armed units formed or recognized by the National Unity Government (NUG), the shadow civilian government formed primarily by democratically elected lawmakers. The alliance launched a massive offensive in northern Myanmar and are in a position where they, along with other “resistance forces,” control a substantial part of the country. If successful, this could be the groundwork for a more normalized democracy for a country that has historically been dominated by military juntas and dictators. The surprise attack successfully captured several government military installations by the Chinese border and has also inspired other armed groups to launch their own successful campaigns against the repressive Tatmadaw or State Administration Council, as the junta is called in Myanmar. A number of Chin resistance forces have come together with the Chin National Front (CNF) in the fight against the junta, including some Indian ethnic groups. This has led the junta to undertake aerial attacks deeper and closer to the border like CNF headquarters. Heavy bombing in Chin state’s strategic Thantlang town has driven the entire population into nearby relief camps and India’s Mizoram state. The happenings in Myanmar directly affects India too. The India-Myanmar shared border region has also been troubled due to ethnic conflict in Manipur between the Meitei and trans-border Kuki communities. The attacks by Chin forces on November 13 have extended their control to junta bases at Rikhawdar of Falam township, and Khawmawi township along the Indian border. The animosity between Chins and Myanmar’s largely Bamar military goes back to at least World War II. Chins fought alongside British and Indian military officers against the Japanese invading forces with Bamars as collaborators of an occupying enemy. Increasing tensions in this region due to escalating crisis in Myanmar and continued ethnic conflict in Manipur pose grave security threat to India’s national security, with possibilities of greater destabilisation by insurgent groups. So far, the revolutionary forces have successfully cut off about 40 percent of the Tatmadaw’s land access to China, taken over military installations, major border crossings, several towns, and transit routes – as well as forced government troops to defect en masse. New Delhi has to be less ambivalent with regard to its policy towards ethnic outfits if it seeks to counter Beijing in Myanmar. Given multiple security stakeholders in Myanmar, depending on a single player may not be suitable for India’s long-term interests.