Unpopularly popular

Despite not taking part in debates in Republican primaries needed to be chosen as the party candidate for the November 2024 US presidential election and despite facing a slew of serious criminal cases in several courts and despite having been impeached twice, and charged with insurrection and sedition by trying to thwart the peaceful transfer of power after losing the 2020 presidential election and despite critics warning that he is plotting to rule as an autocrat; former US President Donald Trump, is the Republican Party’s frontrunner who is most likely to be nominated as the party’s candidate for the November 2024 Presidential election. He could even likely win the US election and that is scary. Trump leads his rivals-Niki Haley and De Santis- for the Republican presidential nomination by nearly 50 percentage points in national opinion polls, a remarkable comeback for a one-term president who three years ago appeared vanquished and humiliated. US president Joe Biden is currently among the least popular of US presidents. In the latest national polls, Trump leads Biden by 1 percentage point (42% to 41%). Biden polls very low since unemployment, which was down to a near-historic low of 3.9% when Trump left office is at 6.3% and also high inflation of 9% .Most voters including the young and of other races, believe that things have gotten worse under Biden. Most Americans view the Republicans as better stewards of the economy even though Trump has fought shy of being specific but rich in rhetoric on how he plans to improve the nation’s economy. Trump’s message is to talk about worries either real or imagined that America is far becoming more diverse culturally. Trump talks about American middle class families wanting home ownership, a decent wage that keeps pace with inflation, a college education. These are becoming more out of reach for many. Polls also show voters are worried about crime and nervous about the flow of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally. Trump plays on these fears while accusing Democrats for allowing the drift due to pandering for immigrant votes. The fact is the Trump is both arsonist and firefighter, who declares the country is in chaos and then offers himself as a saviour. As Biden seems to grow weary at 81, dementia appears to be creeping in. On the other hand, Trump at 77, appears more mentally alert but is someone who is a misfit in global diplomacy. Biden’s efforts at job creation through heavy government investments in infrastructure, clean energy and chip manufacturing haven’t made immediate impact on the Americans. Unfortunately for Biden the two major wars – Russian invasion of Ukraine and Israel- Hamas war are making the voters worry that the US may get involved somehow in a big way. All these factors are making Biden unpopular and according to opinion polls 47% of registered voters in the US currently say they’d support Trump and 43% say they’d support Biden, with a tenth still undecided. Trump faces over a dozen criminal cases and if indicted, could spend time in prison. He also remains deeply unpopular in many parts of the country and among many demographics, and if he is chosen as his party’s nominee it could provoke a high turnout in favour of Democrats to counter him.