Opinion on opinion

India’s inaccurate exit polls led to dramatic public apologies from polling companies after the results on June 4. Pollsters like India Today-Axis My India, Chanakya, and ABP-CVoter predicted that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would get 350-400 seats. Other pollsters also estimated that the alliance would secure over 350 seats. There are now calls for investigations into possible manipulation of both pre-poll opinion surveys and exit polls conducted by media-funded pollsters for the recent Lok Sabha elections. Almost all exit polls released on June 1 forecasted the BJP and its allies would win more than 350 seats in the Lower House of Parliament. However, the final results showed the coalition winning just 293 seats. The exit polls caused the benchmark equity index to reach a record high on June 3, followed by a crash the next day when nearly $400 billion (Rs. 33,36,284 crore) was wiped off the market. Opposition parties are urging the country’s stock market regulator and Parliament to investigate the polling companies and BJP leaders for potential rigging. Chetan Bhagat, author and columnist, wrote, “Either exit polls lied, or interviewed voters lied to the exit polls, or exit polls used flawed methodologies.” Sumanth Raman, a sports commentator, added, “Those who did the exit polls must be held accountable. No way they could have missed the trends if they did the poll genuinely.”Congress leader Rahul Gandhi alleged on June 5 that “people very high up in the BJP have carried out a scam.” He demanded to know if the polls were actually conducted, what the methodology was, and who the investors were. Before the exit polls, Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah had predicted stock market rallies, with Modi stating it would hit record highs on election results day. BJP spokespeople and Modi’s office did not respond to calls and emails seeking further information. Exit polls have a patchy record in India. In 2004, they also predicted a comfortable majority for the BJP-led alliance, which did not happen. While polling was generally accurate in 2014 and 2019, it was significantly off the mark in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For media pollsters to regain their reputation, they must first acknowledge their mistakes in predicting the recent election outcome. The role of those who fund these polls conducted by media pollsters is also under scrutiny, as their influence may affect the integrity of the polling process. Gupta of Axis My India broke down on national television after being repeatedly questioned about his incorrect forecasts, which showed the BJP-led coalition winning 361-401 seats. TV anchors on India Today, which sponsored the poll, consoled Gupta by pointing out that he had at least correctly predicted the winner. Despite their limitations, the predictive power and insights provided by opinion and exit polls are indispensable in modern electoral processes. They not only inform the electorate but also drive the strategic decisions of political parties, making them integral to the democratic process in India. Just because they got it wrong more times than right, it does not mean that opinion and exit polls should be done away with. What is needed is for the TV anchors and pollsters to not get carried away with their own opinions and sell them as people’s opinions.