After counting of votes on March 3 results of election to the 59 assembly constituencies will open the next and ultimate chapter of government formation by the party or alliance having majority (crossing the halfway mark of 30 in the 60-member house).
Aside from the saying that ‘politics is the last refuge of scoundrels’; the declaration of results also closes the chapter of weeks of hectic campaign/ payment of crores of rupees of hoarded, borrowed or looted cash to buy votes.
The ultimate objective of any elected member is to recoup the expenditure and that itself is going to certainly confirm that instability will loom large over any government. For instance, the first stage for winners is to be included in the cabinet of 12. Obviously becoming a mantri also demands a lucrative portfolio to facilitate grabbing crores of rupees.
The other less-fortunate ruling party members who did not find either favour or who are considered junior etc, will also demand some reward. If parliamentary secretaries cannot be appointed owing to the Supreme Court judgment on July 27,2017 which ruled that state assemblies do not have the power to enact law for appointment of parliamentary secretaries. In order to please the aspirants, the post of chairman of various public undertakings may be offered with some other portfolios to please the MLAs.
The fallout of power politics is that soon even opposition members may be tempted to jump ship (defect/merge) in order to recoup expenditure or enjoy the privilege of being a ruling party member.
With re-polling ordered in several polling stations spread under nine(9) assembly constituencies on March 2, there could be a slight impact on some of those constituencies where the margin has been close.
Local pollsters have had their field day in making predictions and speculations on which party or alliance will cross the 30- halfway mark and eventually form the next government.
One pollster claimed that the NDPP-BJP alliance will be able to form the next government with absolute majority. According to this ‘exit poll’ NDPP will win 25+ seats and with BJP which is expected to win six to seven seats, they will have majority of 31 or 32 MLAs.
Another pollster predicted that “NPF will win not less than 27 seats” and with its alliance partners, NPP (expected to win four) and JD-U (expected to win two) will form the next government with 32 or 33 MLAs. Some independent candidates could also win a few seats, far lesser than the eight in 2013.
The entire permutation or combination will unravel by late March 3 evening when MLAs could likely be herded in hotels to guard against poaching. Smaller parties and independents will be most vulnerable to the threat of poaching by the biggies.
It has also been largely speculated that the BJP might like to play a larger role in government formation and could supplement this effort by mobilizing needed resources as in other states like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. BJP is keen to make an impact in the region by replacing Congress as the dominant national party.
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