
After all the brouhaha about the “imminent” defeat of Modi and his party in 2019 at the hands of a grand alliance– mahagatbandhan- it appears that the euphoria is limited to the concept while on the ground, the Congress is at risk of exodus and while regional parties seem to be having their own problems of maladjustment. Congress is undoubtedly the main rival of the BJP in many states and how prepared the grand old party is to face the 2019 battle is important. The Congress is confident of reclaiming Rajasthan which it lost to BJP in 2013. In Rajasthan, power has been oscillating between the Congress and BJP. In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has been in power continuously since 2003 with comfortable margins. The Congress has been fighting itself in the state with factionalism playing out in a never ending cycle. Factionalism pitted late Arjun Singh versus the Shuklas or Vrs Digvijay Singh and now Jyotiraditya Scindia versus Kamal Nath etc. There is no doubt about the winds of change blowing in both states. This belief has made the Congress think that the change is in its favour and therefore it will reclaim power. This has also led Congress to treat other parties like minor players. On the plan to forge a national alliance or mahagatbandhan which the Congress is striving to forge; it appears that the party isn’t on the same page with other regional parties when it comes to seat sharing arrangement. BSP leader Mayawati who was given a pittance in the seat sharing talks with the Congress, broke ranks and formed a grand alliance with former Congressman Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) and CPI for Chhattisgarh. Congress blamed BJP for using CBI as Damocles sword over Mayawati. She also announced an alliance with Samajwadi Party in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Mayawati, like Mamata is unpredictable but reactive and that is surely going to make the BJP more than elated. By pushing ahead a non-BJP and non-Congress alliance, Mayawati has done what the BJP could not, breaking up the so-called proposed mahagatbandhan. However, Mayawati alone cannot be blamed for the cracks in the opposition. Much of the blame also rests with the Congress, whose leaders still live under a delusion that their party is the only viable alternative to the BJP. This unrealistic view embedded inside their minds has made Congress leaders refuse to make more seat adjustments. A similar seat sharing problem could also ensue in Karnataka, J&K, W. Bengal, Gujarat etc. The Congress also has internal problems which are simmering but could burst out in the open if and when BJP engineers resignations and defections in the next few months before 2019. This happened in Mizoram, where the ruling Congress party, was shaken when its home minister and party vice president R. Lalzirliana was forced to step down after being served with show cause notice. In Meghalaya, veteran leader and former chief minister D.D. Lapang also resigned from the party after being made to feel that he was too old and had to make way for the youths. These are signs that even before the proposed mahagatbandhan take shape, internal conflicts will play a big factor in ensuring that the anti-Modi wave becomes dissipated and the BJP easily returns to power again.
