Political chess game

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 Mounting pressure within the single largest legislature party, the 26-member opposition Naga People’s Front (NPF), hotly speculated during the past few months, finally exploded into the open on Monday, when seven NPF legislators declared they would go against their party by supporting the PDA consensus candidate for the lone Lok Sabha seat. The seven, in a joint statement, explained that their decision to back the PDA in the Lok Sabha election was in appreciation of the change brought by the PDA after the coalition came to power in March last year. Furthermore, the seven MLAs were critical of the stand of their party leadership to not set up a party candidate and instead support the Congress candidate in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. In view of the status quo, the seven justified that their decision to support the PDA was to protect “regionalism.” The explanations given in the joint statement are not convincing but serve only to mask the intention to break ranks. The seven do not form the required 2/3rd quorum( which is 18 of the 26 MLAs) to cause a split and permit a “merger” with the ruling NDPP. The stand taken by the rebel MLAs over the issue of protecting “regionalism” is not very convincing given that fact that the NPF has had the longest innings of alliance partnership with the BJP since 2003. It was only in the 2018 assembly elections that the NPF lost the BJP to the newly formed Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party(NDPP). The move by the MLAs may also indicate that there is some chasm between the legislators and senior leaders. It could also be speculated that they took the decision after considering the pros and cons. The NPF, since 2006 has been facing inner dissensions and that became most pronounced. After the 2014 Lok Sabha elections the party was split over the issue of legislature party leadership and became an annual affair from 2014 to 2015, 2016 and 2017. The fate before the seven whether they will be able to escape the penalty of Anti Defection Law or not. Earlier, the number required to escape disqualification under the Tenth Schedule was that a member should be part of a group comprising not less than 1/3rd of the strength of the party. Later, paragraph 3 of the Tenth Schedule was omitted in 2003 and qualification for disqualification changed from split to merger if they formed not less than 2/3rd of a party to escape disqualification. The NPF during its reign in power from 2003 to 2018 has the distinction where all three of its chief minister faced dissidence. The move by the MLAs that too just on the eve of the April 11 Lok Sabha election, is certainly a huge political development. The rebellion by NPF legislators was preceded by the total split within the new entrant to Nagaland politics- the National People’s Party(NPP) when both its MLAs switched sides to the ruling NDPP via the “merger corridor” and leaving the party organisation without a presence in the legislative assembly. The “change- over” as it may, was because the erstwhile NPP legislators objected to the party setting up a candidate for the by election to the 26 Aonglenden assembly constituency. These appear to be consequences of some big play where MLAs may have unwittingly become pawns.

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