Cong has surge in K’taka; Sweep or slip depends on X factor

Karnataka elections will set the directions of Indian politics. The largely triangular contest BJP-Congress-Janata Dal(S) would be interesting to watch whether it gives a clear or hung mandate or how alliances shape up.
The new era politics with Congress back in fighting mood and opposition seemingly coming together may set a challenge to the BJP. With BS Yediyurappa, the face of BJP since 1980s, retiring and the party contesting without a chief ministerial candidate as well as anti-incumbency has its dilemma. Obviously, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the BJP’s face. He has been campaigning on a ‘double engine’, party’s government at the centre and the state.
It expects caste-based politics and giving higher quotas to the major caste groups to help it. It also tries to tap the emotions of Hindu voters by leaning on gods and historical icons. Statues of all sizes maark a major part of the poll campaign.
Karnataka is the only stronghold of the BJP in the south. It won 105, short of 11 seats away from majority in 2018, with Congress 79 and JD-S 39. By vote share Congress had done better with 38.14 percent, BJP 36.35 percent and JD-S 18.3 percent. Others had 7.2 percent. The BJP’s aggressive poaching reduced Congress numbers to 69. The state-level performance was different from its Lok Sabha performance. The present poll may be more difficult than the 2018 fight.
The silver line is the entry of AAP with its announcement of manifesto. This is despite Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal’s call for opposition unity. It has no presence as of now. How would it fare in the polls is not known.
The general perception is that it might harm the Congress and help BJP. This can change the dynamics. Depending on the impact of strong anti-incumbency and scams, if it becomes too virulent it can hurt the BJP and the Congress can be a gainer.
Congress hopes to capitalize on corruption and anti-incumbency, plus its recent national moves – Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatara, which had shown impressive participation in the state, AICC president, Mallikarjun Kharge, a seasoned politician from the state and Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification and notice for eviction from his official residence, and the supposed difficulties of the BJP government may help it.
Congress leader Siddharamaiah’s popularity is on upswing. KPCC president DK Shivkumar is holding the fort with him. Whether it would tilt the balance in the state or not would be keenly observed.
The Congress onslaught on industrialist Gautam Adani, rising prices, farmers’ problems, Shivakumar hopes will turn the table. May be but there are many shortcomings too. It has not raised issues like forced junking of cars and tractors, high road toll, and many other issues including the education becoming expensive in the wake of National Education Policy. It has not said a word on extending three-year graduation to four years.
These issues along with some oranisational weaknesses that are the strength of the BJP could make the road bumpy for Congress. Local RSS workers aver that the party organisation of monitoring at the booth level has developed some cracks. Not all members work with the same dedication. There is nothing to add to the glee of the Congress. Its grassroot organisation needs strengthening.
The AAP entry will have changes in the local voting pattern or not is too early to surmise. If it remains just a minor player as in many places including Goa it may again have limitations. The JD-S is likely to retain its influence in around 35 seats.
During the peak of the Congress at the time of Devraj Urs, Congress had forged alliance with minorities, backward classes and Dalits. Its tactic to replicate it in 2018 did not do the magic. Now with Kharge at its head, dalits may go back to it. The minorities are likely to swing to the Congress
The BJP’s caste reservation, juggling days before the polls announced may have an influence. The concern of the BJP is apparent. The Congress is trying to take the hold. Some of the recent pre-poll surveys like that ABP News C-voter predict surge for Congress with 40.1 percent lead, 2.1percent upswing. The BJP is losing to 34.7 percent from their earlier vote share of 36 percent.
C-Fore’s survey of a sample size of 22,357 voters across 154 assembly constituencies between 1 and 25 March showed that Siddaramaiah, with 45 percent, was the most popular choice for Chief Minister, followed by Yeddyurappa at 26 percent and Kumaraswamy at 13 percent, while 16 percent preferred ‘others’.
But despite polling less votes BJP had got more seats in the2018 poll than Congress. Could it repeat that? No two polls are alike. But organizationally, the BJP influenced the final count in Tripura. Splitting of votes between the Left-Congress and Tipra Motha helped BJP edge past with a slender margin.
Karnataka has hopes for the Congress with its supposed surge but still it is not all roses for it. The election is not fought against the BJP. The RSS cadre strength counts a lot. The RSS would not like to see BJP losing the state like many industrial houses.
The recent concern of the opposition at the meeting chaired by NCP leader Sharad Pawar on EVM remains a concern. Others hope that this election might clear the myth and concern about EVM. The Congress enthusiasm is obvious.
A change of guard in Karnataka would do wonders in national political march to 2024 elections and can give rise to a counter opposition rally. Will it happen?