Nagaland’s inflated census

At least in one area, Nagaland enjoys having the highest population growth rate in the country; or in a way, indicating that people in Nagaland are the most productive in the world. The abnormal rise has confounded ordinary human logic and indicating perhaps, that statistics do not reveal the truth.
While the country’s decennial growth rate for 1991-2001 was 21.54%, Nagaland’s growth rate at 64.53 % for the same period, was the highest in the country.
Like the sword of Damocles, Nagaland’s population growth rate today, is no longer a positive achievement as it has virtually opened a Pandora’s box raising serious questions about the factors that led the figures to become inflated. Official sources said though the abnormal growth rate could be due to reduction in death rate and increase in birth rate because of better medical facilities or even improved census coverage and also inclusion of migrants, yet these could not explain the abnormal increase during 1971-81.
During the 60s it was estimated that the population of then Naga Hills was around three lakh. After Nagaland attained statehood, the first census in 1971 showed a total population of 5,16,000. In 1981 population was 7,75,000 and in 1991, it grew 12,09,546 and by 2001 it reached 19,90,036.
In the analysis of the ‘Single Age Population Distribution’ conducted on population growth, those born in 1991 were 23,792 and by 2001 when they would have attained ten years of age, the figure should have remained almost the barring minor corrections. However, the study as per census showed instead, that in 2001 their number trebled to from 23,792 to 74,025.
Similarly, there were 21,100 one-year old babies in 1991 and by 2001 the figure shot up 36,483 from 21,100.
Like wise, the figures keep showing an abnormal increase in all specific age groups. In total, the number of children between 0 to 9 years during 1991 was 2,95,161 and the number of this age group after ten years, doubled to 5,49,323.
Most interestingly, a Sample Survey Report conducted at random in six districts told a contrasting story of negative growth rate.
For instance, as per census of 2001 the population in Mon’s Phuktong village which was recorded as 1299 revealed only 1138 as per the Sample Survey Report indicating -12.39% negative growth. Similarly, Mission compound under Longleng which recorded 852 persons as per census of 2001 showed only 377 persons as per the SSR indicating -55.75% negative growth.
Also Chuchuyimlang headquarters under Chuchuyimland Circle of Mokokchung district recorded 1679 as per 2001 census but as per SSR report showed only 1096 persons, indicating -34.72 % negative growth.
Merapani under Wokha recorded 1586 as per 2001 census but the SSR revealed only 996 indicating 37.20% negative growth. The highest negative growth was indicated in Terogunyu under Tseminyu circle where as per 2001 census there were 1830 persons but the SSR showed only 720 indicating a negative growth of -60.66%.
Peren Old under Peren district also recorded 701 persons as per 2001 census but the SSR showed only 475 persons indicating -32.24% negative growth.In Meriema under Chiephobozou Circle, the 2001 census showed 1349 persons but the SSR revealed only 916,indicating -32.24% negative growth. On the other hand, 7th Mile under Chumukedima which showed 579 persons as per 2001 census showed 682 persons as per SSR indicating +14.24% rise.The increase were marked in Paglapahar(+ 7.32%), Kukidolong(+17.22%),Thizama(+3.82%)
According to observers, Nagaland’s abnormal rise in population census has caused deep embarrassment to the state government which officials are firm in their resolve to correct the gross inflationary figures so as to keep the record straight for proper scientific data and study.
The speculations for the inflation appear to be hinged on (a)politics, where more people means more votes and (b) funds, where the size of population means more money. In its effort to make a clean breast and also to regain the confidence of the policy planners in New Delhi, the state government proposes to conduct a series of meetings with legislators and public organizations to impress upon them the imperative need to correct the drift before it goes out of control.