
Most opinion polls in the national media, especially the electronic segment, claim that their polls show the level of popularity among various political leaders or preferences among public for political leaders. Most people who are ignorant about poll surveys would tend to accept them as fiat accompli. With the high stake 2019 parliamentary election just round the corner, public opinion polls now play an important role in politics. They are used throughout the course of election campaigns by candidates and by the media to see which candidates are ahead and who is likely to emerge victorious. Most importantly, revolving the issue around who is the most acceptable politician to lead the country. The results of these polls, in turn, largely determine where future campaign monies are to be spent and where each candidate’s efforts will be concentrated until the close of the campaign. However, the question is – can these polls really be trusted? It is time to put such polls in their place because of their past records. In the worst of scenarios, the slightly better readings are the exit polls and not pre-poll surveys. This is highlighted by 2004 pre-poll surveys for the parliamentary elections, where almost all polls carried by media suggested the NDA under Vajpayee would be the single largest party and likely to retain power. These polls are commissioned by that particular media company then heavily publicised. In doing so, the media often increase the name recognition of whichever candidate is in the lead. As a result, that candidate becomes even more well known and gets an extra boost the next time people are surveyed. For instance in the US presidential elections, Donald Trump was polling at 2% before he announced his candidacy. Immediately afterward (while the media was dedicating 20% to 30% of candidacy headlines to one candidate) his support jumped to 11%. The US media had tried to go by the perception that Hillary was winning hands down and so, it was the safest bet to ignore Trump. Like the reason why just about everyone failed to predict Trump’s astronomical rise, in India too journalists somehow do not see any other leader other than Modi as the most popular leader. That’s not just because the methodology of polling is itself flawed (more on that below), it’s also because the analysis is affected by the humans conducting it. Humans, flawed as they are, produce polls that are imperfectly designed, imperfectly conducted and imperfectly analyzed by imperfect people. Polls are not a crystal ball but (at best) a decent snapshot of now. Even the wording of polls reflects this focus on the present rather than the future: “If the election were today, for whom would you vote?”. Polls are mainly conducted through mobile phones. However, the respondents are already known to the pollster/media reporter and quite obviously would tend to follow the reports carried. In a highly competitive environment, there is also the spectre of money being paid to the respondents. Some prominent electronic media are manipulating the methodology to suit the demands of the day. Even in the 2004 elections, there was no competition between veteran L.K.Advani and Sonia Gandhi and which the media hyped over. Not that Sonia was anywhere near the stature of Advani in terms of experience and capability but then, the people are the ones to choose and not the poll surveys.
