
As the world makes an attempt to limp back to normal after the onslaught of Coronavirus; a mutated virus has appeared on the scene and according to epidemiologists, it transmits 70% faster than its predecessor virus. That it s terrible news for the world that is grappling with overcoming the deadly COVID-19 virus. The world’s economy has been shattered and according to economists, there has been nearly 6% contraction in the global economy due to coronavirus. The pandemic caused the largest global recession in history, with more than a third of the global population at the time being placed on lockdown. Supply shortages are expected to affect a number of sectors due to panic buying, increased usage of goods to fight the pandemic, and disruption to factories and logistics in mainland China. While the monetary impact on the travel and trade industry is yet to be estimated, it is likely to be in the billions and increasing. Global stock markets experienced their worst crash since 1987 and in the first three months of 2020 the G20 economies fell 3.4% year-on-year. In food crisis countries, up to 80 percent of the population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods. The economic impact of the 2020 coronavirus pandemic in India has been largely disruptive. India’s growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics. The Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India said that this drop is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic effect on the Indian economy. India’s GDP estimates were downgraded even more to negative figures, signalling a deep recession. (The ratings of over 30 countries have been downgraded during this period.) On May 26, CRISIL announced that this will perhaps be India’s worst recession since independence. State Bank of India research estimates a contraction of over 40% in the GDP in Q1.Compelled to face realities, the government of India announced a slew of economic packages but these did not address short term demand concerns, which may in turn pull down the economy even more; with most of the announcements being related to supply. In December 2020, a Right to Information petition revealed that less than 10% of the package had been actually disbursed, chiefly in the form of emergency credit. In India up to 53% of businesses have specified a certain amount of impact of shutdowns caused due to corona virus on operations, as per a FICCI survey in March. By April 24 the unemployment rate had increased nearly 19% within a month, reaching 26% unemployment across India, according to the ‘Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy’. Around 140,000,000 (14 crores) Indians lost employment during the lockdown. More than 45% households across the nation reported an income drop as compared to the previous year. Various business such as hotels and airlines cut salaries and laid off employees. Electricity consumption has declined strongly after the national lockdown was enacted. It was nearly 30 percent below normal levels at the end of march and remained a quarter below normal levels in April. The financial health of most States is worrying but the Centre is also cash-strapped and has also not paid the bulk of taxes from GST. However, with the Modi government focussed more on winning elections, the economy may not be the prime concern and that is not good news. It was also reported by economists that "long pending politically sensitive reforms" have been pushed through during this time and with this package. In May it was on an average 14 percent below normal and in June it was still 8 percent below normal. Lower electricity consumption implies lower economic activity. In the past, a unit of additional economic activity in India has been associated with 1.3 units additional electricity consumption. A study during the first two weeks of May month by the Public Health Foundation of India, Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health and the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture found that "10% of farmers could not harvest their crop in the past month and 60% of those who did harvest reported a yield loss" and that a majority of farmers are facing difficulty for the next season. State governments incurred huge losses to the extent of having to cut capital expenses as well as government plans in the near future and finding alternate ways to pay salaries.
