National political roadmap

In four out of five states that will go to polls in the coming election cycle, the BJP is the incumbent party, with the exception of Punjab. There is a war-like environment within the highest echelons of the BJP where hectic plan of actions are being unfolded as the BJP fights to seek another term in government in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, and Manipur. When election results are declared on the March 10, the interpretations of the BJP’s success or lack of in these elections, will not just be confined to these state-specific results. They will also answer questions about the BJP having faced increasingly strong political headwinds in most parts of the country since its thumping victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. All eyes are on the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, seen as a template for Lok Sabha 2024. Historically, state polls are an unreliable barometer of the national mood two years down the line. But UP could well throw up answers to intriguing questions about the shape of things to come.The outcome of the elections especially in Uttar Pradesh is considered very crucial for prime minister Narendra Modi. UP has 80 Lok Sabha seats, the highest among states in India and in 2019 the BJP won 62.Modi represents Varanasi since 2014. The BJP has used religion and communal divide to polarise voters and this has proved successful mainly because the opposition parties who together get around 60% of the votes to the BJP’s 30% , are hopelessly divided. The party is apparently counting on that divisive tactic to resonate in Uttar Pradesh, a bastion of the Hindu right, preserving its hold on power in the state and putting it in a favorable position for a general election in two years. Yogi Adityanath, an acolyte of Modi’s and a potential successor as prime minister, cast the election in terms of “80 versus 20” – a thinly veiled reference to the rough percentage of Hindus in the state compared with Muslims. If the Modi-Yogi combine scripts a convincing win, the UP CM could be a contender for the top job. The Samajwadi Party(SP) led by former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav is a serious contender to Yogi Adityanath. If he pulls it off, the Opposition could rally around him. Congress’ Priyanka Vadra has been hard at work and she battles an uphill task to convince voters of her ability to deliver though the Congress is only a fringe player in UP. While BJP seeks to polarise voters and the SP seeks to pander to caste politics; the Congress on the other hand, seeks to raise issues on women empowerment, employment etc. By dint of her consistency and hard work Priyanka has attracted admiration for her combative spirit. If she can improve the Congress vote share (6.25 per cent) and/or seat share (seven) even by a few percentage points, she will have reversed her party’s inexorable slide. The Congress rank-and-file, which in any case sees her as a natural-born leader, might then attempt to force a change at the top. UP could just be the big litmus test not only for Modi but for other non-BJP parties as the outcome could have a psychological impact for 2024.