Complexity of Manipur politics

A close fight appears to be on the cards for the Manipur assembly election where voters will choose 60 members in a two-phased poll on February 28 and March 5. Counting will be held on March 10 as along with other four states. The BJP is contesting all the 60 assembly constituencies followed by the Congress which is contesting 54 seats. The Congress, CPI, CPI (M), Forward Block, RSP and JD (S) have formed Manipur Progressive Secular Alliance (MPSA). The NPP seems to be gaining some ground and will contest 41 seats. As per poll predictions, both ruling BJP and opposition Congress are locked in a tight fight. It is difficult to make any accurate predictions but by and large, it is expected that the margin of seats between the BJP and Congress could be hardly three to five. Of course, it is quite a different matter when the final tally is arrived after counting. One cannot discount the National People’s Party(NPP) which is also likely to win a sizeable number of seats. The BJP could have sailed through but it has been wracked with dissidence and defections of some of its senior leaders. They have rebelled against the party because defectors were given importance in ticket distribution while the party veterans and loyalists were denied tickets.As of today, opinions speculate that the BJP could win around 20 to 25 seats while the Congress could win anywhere between 15 to twenty seats. As for NPP speculations indicate that the party could win anywhere between 10 to 15 seats. The NPF which is a post-poll coalition partner of BJP will contest 10 out of 20 seats in the hill districts. The party is expected to win anywhere from three to 7 seats. Speculations stem from mostly trends but these could either go right or wrong. Among the leaders, Biren Singh is still more popular than Congress veteran O.Ibobi in a ratio of 5 to 3 in favour of the former. However if the result is a fractured mandate, the Congress could ally with NPP and other like minded parties to stake claim provided the combine tally is around 35 legislators. However, even if non-BJP parties stake claim, the same story could be repeated as it did in 2017 when the Congress despite having won 28 seats and the BJP only 21, was not invited to form the government by Najma Heptullah a former Congress veteran who defected to BJP. The saffron party mustered the majority number after forming a coalition with smaller parties like the National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF), which had bagged 4 seats each. In 2020, the BJP was practically unseated when its ally NPP as well as three BJP MLAs pulled the plug on it and pledged their support for the Congress. The BJP however managed to stay on despite not having the numbers following the intervention of its central leadership. The Biren Singh government then went on to win the controversial vote of confidence through voice vote. Many BJP leaders and MLAs have defected to other parties and it remains to be seen whether they will cause enough damage to the party in the forthcoming elections.