Churning in Myanmar

With the anti-junta conglomerate under the National Unity Government (NUG) coordinating with various ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar against the ruling military junta, the combined anti-junta forces working in tandem have successfully launched their campaign to eventually oust the military from power. The offensive, named by rebels as “Operation 1027” after the date it began, initially made inroads in junta-controlled areas on the border with China in Shan State, where military authorities have lost control of several towns and more than 100 security outposts. As of today, according to sources from Myanmar, the ethnic rebels control almost 70 to 80 percent of Myanmar. After gaining more territories after displacing and overrunning the Myanmar military-controlled towns and areas, the end of the military government in the country is imminent but how long is a matter of speculation. The NUG idealises a post-junta Myanmar unified under its leadership with Aung San Suu Kyi returned to power. However the current civil war in Myanmar is being fought at different regions by different ethnic anti-junta forces who are unified only by their opposition to the military rulers. Since September 2021, the National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow government in exile, has authorised a “defensive war” against the state military, pushing for the creation of militias targeting the junta and its economic base. The junta’s recent reversal in Shan State, its most significant territorial loss, came at the hands of three ethnic-based armed groups, the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. These three groups now coordinate their activities as the Brotherhood Alliance. Rebel forces in Myanmar’s Chin state overran the junta’s two military bases close to the border with India and have taken control of a border crossing point between the two countries across the tiny hilly Indian state of Mizoram. Myanmar shares a long land border of over 1600 Km with India. Four North-Eastern States viz. Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram share international boundary with Myanmar. The military junta has embarked on a war against civilians across the country. The junta’s air force has launched devastating airstrikes on civilian targets and scorched-earth “clearance operation” campaigns that have killed thousands of people and displaced more than 700,000 more. Rather than cowing the populace, junta violence continues to spur nationwide resistance. In the event of a new government in Myanmar, the ethnic rebels though working in a strategic cooperation with NUG will seek guarantees about key demands around federalism and minority rights that were not satisfactorily addressed when Aung San was last in power. The junta appears on a clear path to defeat, but this will not be immediate. Meanwhile, the state’s military forces commonly respond to reversals with shocking violence, so bringing junta rule to a speedy end must be prioritised. India will be keenly watching the ongoing civil war in Myanmar with concern since it has strategically backed the junta to checkmate north east rebel outfits. Naga outfits in Myanmar have also maintained neutrality for whatever reasons while Meitei rebel outfits are reportedly not hostile to the junta. There are reports that some of the north east militants are cooperating with the junta so as to retain their camps. Against this backdrop India’s strategic alliance with the junta would certainly not be welcomed if a new civilian government comes to power.