INDIA’s Trojan Horse(s)

After two years of confabulations and efforts, more than two dozen Indian opposition parties finally formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) in July 2023, to challenge the ruling BJP in the upcoming general election 2024. The way forward would have been for the alliance to agree to a strategic seat-sharing arrangement with a single primary candidate in each constituency to ensure a unified front against the BJP. However, despite agreeing to come together, arch political rivals now on the same side, are unable to reconcile their differences even before the INDIA completed six months of its formation. INDIA today is coming apart and the political narrative is no longer about Modi and BJP but unilateral decision on ‘gifting’ seats which TMC and AAP are offering to the Congress, the largest party with pan-India presence and led by Rahul and a rubber stamp president. As the weak giant among INDIA, the Congress is also bitterly opposed by two other regional parties- TMC and AAP. Mamata Banerjee of TMC in West Bengal and Arvind Kejriwal of AAP in Delhi and Punjab, have distanced themselves from the Congress and made it clear that they will go it alone in their respective states. In other words, minimal to no seat-sharing is expected in these states. Interestingly when Mamata and Kejriwal first proposed then got Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge elected as convenor of INDIA, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar was slighted. Kumar, a veteran and accomplished political somersault artiste, defected back to NDA. He was earlier considered as the right man to lead INDIA and a possible PM. Nitish wasn’t too happy with Congress either and least with the RJD. His somersault may not be unexpected but a big blow to INDIA. The Achilles heel of INDIA is the Congress as it is the main rival of TMC in Bengal and AAP in Punjab and Delhi. The Congress arrogance vis-à-vis regional parties is unmatched by its performance in elections. Congress secured less than 10% of the vote and a mere 52 seats in 2019 but is still nominally present in all states. Congress failed to perform and lost Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in last year’s election and undid itself in Madhya Pradesh. In the 2020 Bihar assembly elections Congress could win only 19 of the 70 seats it was allotted by RJD(which won 75 seats, the highest). The Congress let down the alliance and this helped the BJP-JD(U) to form the government. Even in the 2017 UP assembly election, despite the incumbent SP government having strong presence in Yadav and muslim dominated belts, the party in alliance with Congress was routed by the BJP. Akhilesh former chief minister of UP blamed the Congress for upsetting the caste applecart and refused to have any truck again. In the 2022 UP assembly election, Congress had to go it alone and the inflated expectation of being led by Priyanka was deflated when it won on two of the 399 seats it contested, down from five it had won in 2017. Congress itself is on a continuing downslide with many leaving the party but it is more focussed only on Rahul, who is seen as the future PM. But Rahul’s lack of GK and poor oratorical ability and his obsession with Jodo Yatra are some of the reasons why other regional parties are unwilling to be associated with Congress. And that is the story and beginning of the end of INDIA.