Test on ONOE

The One Nation One Election agenda will be on test, as India braces for the delimitation exercise in 2026, where several states in the south are literally up in arms against fearing that the delimitation will decrease the number of Lok Sabha seats in the south and added to other states in the north. The delimitation exercise expected in 2026, has southern states like Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Telangana – express fears that the exercise, if conducted solely based on population, will diminish their political representation in Parliament. These states question why they should be penalised for successfully implementing population control measures, while states that have not made similar efforts will be rewarded. This is with reference to the population control launched during the late 60s through the 80s. During 1971 to 2011, while the population of north Indian states such as Bihar, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh rose by 150% ; in the south the population growth was below 100% and so much below the national average of 121%. If the number of Lok Sabha seats remains fixed at 543 and delimitation is based on post-2026 population figures, southern India could lose over 20 seats, which may be redistributed to northern states. Even with an increase to 848 seats, Uttar Pradesh could gain over 60, while the entire southern region would receive fewer than 40 additional seats. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, in response and during his recent visit to Chennai, assured that no southern state would lose seats but would instead gain additional constituencies on a pro-rata basis. However, political parties are seeking clarity on whether the pro-rata distribution will be based on the current seat percentage or on the population figures. The southern states want the freeze to be extended till 2056, to allow for proper implementation of population stabilization measures in states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. India has conducted delimitation exercises only four times- in 1952, 1963, 1973, and 2002. Notably, the 1973 exercise marked the last instance when the number of Lok Sabha seats was increased. The 2002 delimitation focused solely on redrawing constituency boundaries without altering the allocation of seats among states. In this regard, it may be fair to comment that Nagaland should have had at least two seats in the Lok Sabha from 1973 including the Rajya Sabha when seats were increased. By 1971 the population of Nagaland was 5.16 lakh. Again when Arunachal Pradesh got statehood in 1987 its population was approximately around three to four lakh. During the same period in 1987, the population of Nagaland was around nine to ten lakhs. By the next delimitation, assembly and parliament seats in Nagaland should be proportionately increased from 60 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats each. Once the freeze on the number and state-wise distribution of seats ends in 2026, the Union government will be required to constitute a Delimitation Commission. The Union government, according to the Constitution, should constitute a Delimitation Commission of India by an Act of Parliament, chaired by a retired Supreme Court judge. India’s Chief Election Commissioner and Chief Electoral Officers of all states will be members of the commission. With a North-South divide on delimitation it remains to be seen how the Modi government’s agenda for One Nation One Election will meander through the southern region.