Fatal friendly fire

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), founded in 2012 on the promise of clean governance and an anti-corruption stance, came to power in Delhi in 2015 by aggressively positioning itself against the Congress. Over the years, it consolidated its voter base, maintaining power through its self-proclaimed anti-corruption stance and welfare-driven policies. However, the recent electoral setback in Delhi underscores the vulnerabilities of both AAP and the broader opposition coalition. The BJP realized the importance of the middle class who began to resent Kejriwal’s outright pro-poor programmes. However the icing on the cake came through the massive tax cut announced just on the eve of the Delhi polls by the Modi government in the Union Budget. This attracted a huge chunk of the middle class voters to BJP. Disunity within the opposition was another major factor displayed in the 2024 Delhi assembly elections especially between AAP and Congress. According to the Election Commission, AAP secured 43% of the vote share, while the BJP outperformed it with 45%. The Congress, despite winning no seats, captured 6% of the votes. If AAP and Congress had joined forces, they could have significantly altered the outcome, potentially keeping the BJP in the opposition. In at least 11 key constituencies, the split in opposition votes handed the BJP a decisive edge. Consider the New Delhi constituency, where Arvind Kejriwal himself lost to the BJP’s Parvesh Verma by a narrow margin of 4,089 votes. The Congress candidate, Sandeep Dikshit, secured 4,568 votes-more than enough to have changed the result had there been an alliance. Then former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia lost Greater Kailash by just 675 votes, while Congress’s Farhad Suri polled 7,350 votes. In other constituencies like Malviya Nagar, Timarpur, and Chhatarpur, the Congress’s vote share, though small, played a spoiler role for AAP. These results raise pressing questions about the future of the opposition coalition, particularly the INDIA bloc. The alliance was envisioned as a grand opposition front against the BJP, but cracks have been evident from the beginning. While regional heavyweights like the DMK, JMM, and NC remain more or less neutral, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Samajwadi Party (SP), have shown outright hostility against Congress. Despite TMC and SP campaigning for the AAP in Delhi, their efforts proved futile. The enmity between AAP and Congress has deep historical roots. AAP’s rise came at the expense of Congress, with Kejriwal launching scathing attacks on the party’s leadership, from the Gandhis to the late Sheila Dikshit during 2012. Their rivalry persisted in states like Punjab and Goa, making their 2024 Lok Sabha poll alliance in Delhi an uneasy one. AAP’s reluctance to collaborate was highlighted by Congress research cell head Amitabh Dubey, who cited Kejriwal’s December 2024 tweet: “Aam Aadmi Party will be fighting this election on its own strength in Delhi. There is no possibility of any alliance with Congress.” Dubey argued that AAP’s arrogance led to the break-up, ultimately proving costly. The BJP, on the other hand, capitalized on this disarray. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sharp remark-“They (INDIA) stopped the Congress but could not save the AAP”-summed up the situation. As Bihar gears up for elections in late 2025, the challenges for the opposition are mounting. The TMC and SP have already hinted at charting independent courses in Parliament, signaling further fragmentation within the INDIA bloc.